A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
