🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.