‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the government states there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say stocks are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now largely blocked by the war.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been sparked by misinformation. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.